The U.S. markets took a breather on Wednesday after a strong three-day rally, influenced by cooler-than-expected inflation data, a potential U.S.–China trade deal, and key Fed signals. Let’s break down what’s moving the markets and what to watch next.
📊 Market Performance – Wednesday Recap
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Dow Jones: Flat
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Nasdaq: ▼ 0.5%
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S&P 500: ▼ 0.27% (snapping a 3-day winning streak)
Investors were seen booking profits after a strong run, especially as fresh inflation data surprised to the downside.
🧊 Cooling Inflation Data Gives Hope to Bulls
According to the latest CPI report:
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Consumer Price Index (CPI): +0.1% in May (vs +0.2% expected)
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Core CPI: +0.1%, also below estimates
✅ This gives investors hope that the Fed may finally pivot towards a rate cut.
💰 What’s the Fed’s Next Move?
Traders are currently pricing in a 68% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
📉 Lower inflation and a weakening labor market are increasing pressure on the Fed to ease.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Agreement in Sight
Former President Donald Trump, via Truth Social, hinted that a U.S.–China trade deal is nearly finalized, pending personal approval by President Xi and himself.
“Deal with China is done, subject to final approval with President Xi and me,”
— Donald Trump, Truth Social
Deal Highlights:
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U.S. gains 55% tariffs
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China receives 10% in tariff benefits
This could significantly impact global trade flows and supply chain dynamics.
📈 Other Key Market Indicators
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U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield: 4.40%
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Dollar Index (DXY): 98.3
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Brent Crude Oil: $69.80/barrel (on rising U.S.–Iran tensions)
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Bitcoin: $108,550
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Gold: $3,325/oz (potential safe haven play)
🚀 Stock in Focus: Oracle (ORCL)
Oracle soared +7% in after-hours trading following a stellar earnings beat.
Key Guidance:
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Cloud infrastructure revenue projected to grow +70% in FY2026, up from +50% last fiscal year.
Expect a strong open in Oracle shares and further momentum if broader tech sentiment holds.
📅 What to Watch on Thursday
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May’s PPI (Producer Price Index) – Expected: +0.2%
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Further developments in the U.S.–China deal
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Geopolitical tensions: U.S.–Iran and Middle East updates
📝 Final Thoughts
With inflation cooling and trade optimism on the rise, the market is poised for another leg up — if macro risks stay contained. Keep an eye on Fed commentary, PPI data, and global headlines for intraday cues.
📌 Disclaimer:
This post is for informational and educational purposes only. I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. Always do your own research or consult a professional before investing.
